As Netanyahu decides between war and a deal, IDF prepares for Gaza City invasion

It is still far from clear when and if Netanyahu will finally give the order to move the operation forward on a large scale.

It seems as if for weeks now, the world has been waiting for an imminent hostage exchange and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas or an imminent invasion by the IDF of Gaza City (after multiple prior invasions).

But neither has happened.

So what is happening?

First of all, the IDF has been attacking and clearing Hamas and Palestinian civilians from portions of northern Gaza bordering on Gaza City, such as Zeitun.

The military first attacked and cleared Zeitun of Hamas terrorists in the fall of 2023 and has returned there multiple times since.

What is different in Israel's next Gaza takeover?

What would be different this time – if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu eventually greenlights the invasion plans as leaked to the media – would be Israel taking control over Gaza City itself to try to hold it.

The air force has also increased strikes against Hamas in recent weeks, whether in the Gaza City area or other areas.

The IDF has been in touch with hospitals and other central civilian authorities in Gaza to prepare and coordinate a mass evacuation of around a million Gazan civilians from the area.

According to Hamas’s Health Ministry, dozens of Gazans were killed over the weekend, though as usual the ministry does not distinguish between Hamas terrorists and innocent civilians.

Still, recent percentages for the IDF have been likely the worst since the start of the war in the ratio of civilians to terrorists harmed.

For much of the war, various military officials said off-record that a rate of 60% civilians harmed to 40% terrorists harmed seemed broadly accurate and would have put Israel in a good place compared to other countries that had to fight terrorists in urban areas with the systematic use of human shields.

But this was at the stage when the IDF was sometimes killing thousands of Hamas terrorists per month or even per week.

In contrast, in the last half year, the army has said it had killed just over 2,000 Hamas terrorists. This during a time in which the Hamas Health Ministry has alleged that there have been around 11,000 Gazans killed, which would be about an 85% to 15% civilian-to-terrorist ratio.

On the flip side, Israel is hard at work setting up new tent areas and makeshift medical intake areas to handle the planned mass movement of Palestinian civilians out of Gaza City.

The IDF has shown numerous examples of Hamas exaggerating or downright inventing non-existent mass civilian casualty incidents, but it has not tossed Hamas’s estimates completely out the window and has declined to provide its own estimated civilian casualty tally – something which it always did in prior conflicts in Gaza.

Concurrently, tens of thousands of reservists have either already been called up for a new round of duty or will be in the first week of September.

In this way, Israel so far has been punished globally for daring to move and potentially endanger a large number of Palestinian civilians again, punished domestically for calling up large numbers of reserves as the war wages on into the end of the second year, and receiving none of the concrete benefits of actually eliminating Hamas forces in any large number.

Netanyahu did pocket a potentially significant benefit over a week ago when Hamas finally agreed to another temporary ceasefire for another partial hostage deal, something it had held off from agreeing to for months, until the Gaza City invasion began to look more real.

But the prime minister – at press time – had not even seriously discussed accepting the deal, which he desperately wanted in July, such that there has been no bankable achievement to date.

Meanwhile, there is no ongoing battle between two opposing groups: those Israeli officials who want to rush the invasion of Gaza City to gain some of the benefits of killing more Hamas terrorists and putting more direct pressure on Hamas’s few remaining surviving leaders, and those who want to draw out the pre-invasion phase for weeks or months to reduce any possibility of risk to Israeli soldiers, Israeli hostages, or Palestinian civilians.

It is still far from clear when, and if, Netanyahu will finally give the order to move the operation forward in a large-scale manner and what benefits will arise from it, compared to the costs.