6 hours ago 1

A confession: My 4-8 season prediction turned into 6-6, as expected

Since spring ball, I’ve kept my expectations low for Kentucky Football in 2025. My initial record prediction was 4-8, then it climbed to 5-7 over the summer for gambling purposes ($100 on over 4.5 wins). However, the optimism ended there. I’ve insisted to anyone who would listen—and even to myself—that nothing could convince me to add a sixth win to my projected record for the Wildcats. Five wins were already too high a ceiling as I braced for more struggles and the growing pains of an entirely new roster full of unknowns.

But here we are, three days from kickoff in Lexington, and I have a confession to make: I drank the Kool-Aid. I’ve fallen for the excitement, energy, and optimism that wrap me up every August, plus a little bit of math that I’ll explain in a moment. Despite insisting that I wouldn’t, I am now predicting a 6-6 season and a return to the postseason. I’ll see you at the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

[KSR’s 2025 Kentucky Football Season Predictions]

This happens every year. Every year, I try to be the voice of reason, a lifelong fan employed by a fan site, who tries to stay grounded in logic and the legitimate concerns surrounding my college football team. I’ve reminded myself of the home losing streak, the roster turnover, the Big Dog’s departure, and the annual SEC grind that is merciless, regardless of who’s on the schedule or roster. And yet, something about this fall season, the way the weather cooled off this week in Lexington, the quiet confidence from the coaches and players—it all made me do it again. I’m back in, a believer in a football program I can’t quit.

So here I am, publicly admitting it: I have been converted to bowl expectations. My cautious predictions of the spring and summer are gone. I am ready to ride this season with hope, excitement, and a little bit of blind faith.

Now, let me explain how I arrived at six wins, mathematically.

Kentucky can’t go 5-7

In breaking down my game-by-game predictions to get to Kentucky’s 5-7 record, I ran into a problem at the end of the schedule, where the math wasn’t mathing. I predicted that Kentucky would beat Vanderbilt in the second-to-last game of the year to reach five wins, matching my projected record. However, to stay at five, I would then have to pick Kentucky to lose the Governor’s Cup with bowl eligibility on the line—a plot twist I never considered.

If that scenario were to happen, Mark Stoops would be taking a 5-6 team into the rivalry game, fresh off an SEC road win, with its back completely against the wall, needing to beat the Cards for a bowl invitation. What a great spot for Stoops ball. That’s his wheelhouse. Then throw in Vince Marrow on the other side, wearing his new adidas britches inside out and throwing his Ls up for the first time in the series. Put all of that together, and there’s no shot in hell that I’d pick Louisville in that spot.

So, unintentionally, my firm 5-7 record prediction became 6-6 when I tried to show my work to the class. I think that if Kentucky wins five games heading into the Louisville game, then it will be a 6-6 season. Stoops will have them ready to die for the Governor’s Cup, with all that’s at stake. He’d certainly break some locker furniture in the pregame.

To the contrary, if Kentucky has four or fewer wins, they’re checked out in the last game of the year, and Louisville will keep the cup. So, it’s 4-8 or 6-6 for me, and the game week Kool-Aid is too tasty to be negative. It’s 6-6, winning four in a row to end the season.